Cuiaba 0-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Internacional at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cuiaba vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Internacional make the trip to Arena Pantanal to face Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 June 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Internacional have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Internacional have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Internacional are 0.60 PPG clear of Cuiaba in recent Serie A fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Cuiaba 2W, Internacional 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Internacional winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cuiaba — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Internacional — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 41% versus Internacional 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 34% | Internacional 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.87 xG and Internacional 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.818 / defence 1.251 | Internacional attack 0.919 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.108. Data: 42 Cuiaba games / 42 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 24% | Draw 31% | Internacional 45%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Internacional 2.22. Internacional hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 30% | Internacional 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 24% | Draw 31% | Internacional 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Cuiaba 0.87 / Internacional 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.818 / def 1.251 | Internacional attack 0.919 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Internacional (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Internacional xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Internacional kick off?
Cuiaba vs Internacional kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Cuiaba 0 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Cuiaba vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Internacional part of?
Cuiaba vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 24% chance of winning, Internacional a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cuiaba and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Internacional?
Record (6 meetings): Cuiaba 2W | Draws 2 | Internacional 2W.
What form are Cuiaba and Internacional in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Internacional (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.82x the league average against Internacional's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (0.92x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
24%
4.15
31%
3.20
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.14
1.27
Internacional xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.82
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 15.0 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.27 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 24W 20D 32L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Internacional's form line: 35W 23D 18L from 76 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Internacional are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cuiaba.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.32 PPG from 38 outings (12W 14D 12L).
On the road, Internacional have gone 13W 13D 12L from 38 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.37 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Internacional in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Internacional in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 games (1.21 PPG), while Internacional have gone 35W 23D 18L in their last 76 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Internacional away?
Internacional's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.32 PPG; Internacional away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Internacional in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Internacional have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
2
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Internacional?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, Internacional have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2024, when Internacional 3-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 47%, Internacional 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Cuiaba and 34% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Internacional in 32%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 32% of games; Internacional in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 47% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Cuiaba's recent games and 34% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Cuiaba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Cuiaba 0-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.87 xG and Internacional 1.27 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.82 / defence 1.25 against Internacional attack 0.92 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 24% | Draw 31% | Internacional 45%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 34%, Internacional 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.