Cuiaba 5-0 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as Cuiaba welcome Fortaleza EC to Arena Pantanal. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 June 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Cuiaba at Arena Pantanal this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cuiaba 1.40 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Cuiaba: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Fortaleza EC, with 1 draws across those contests.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Cuiaba winning.
The historical record gives Cuiaba a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 41% versus Fortaleza EC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 34% | Fortaleza EC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.67 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.630 / defence 1.087 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.873 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.154. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.630 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Cuiaba games / 45 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 21% | Draw 34% | Fortaleza EC 44%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 4.76 | Draw 2.94 | Fortaleza EC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortaleza EC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 30% | Fortaleza EC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 21% | Draw 34% | Fortaleza EC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Cuiaba 0.67 / Fortaleza EC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.630 / def 1.087 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.873 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Cuiaba 5 - 0 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 21% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC?
Record (6 meetings): Cuiaba 4W | Draws 1 | Fortaleza EC 1W.
What form are Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Fortaleza EC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
21%
4.70
34%
2.92
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.77
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
7%
14.06
23%
4.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 18.7 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.09 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 24W 20D 32L from 76 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 30W 19D 27L across 76 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.21 PPG, Fortaleza EC on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 12W 14D 12L from 38 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 14W 5D 19L across 38 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.20 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 games (1.21 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 30W 19D 27L in their last 76 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.32 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2024, when Cuiaba won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Cuiaba
1
Draws
2
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 5, Fortaleza EC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 47%, Fortaleza EC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Cuiaba) and 47% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 53% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Cuiaba's recent games and 47% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cuiaba run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Fortaleza EC 5-0 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.67 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Cuiaba beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortaleza EC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.63 / defence 1.09 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 21% | Draw 34% | Fortaleza EC 44%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Cuiaba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 34%, Fortaleza EC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.21 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.