Cruzeiro 0-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cruzeiro host Fortaleza EC at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 21 June 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Fortaleza EC away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 0.79 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 0.641 / defence 1.079 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.929 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.091. Cruzeiro's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Cruzeiro games / 48 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 23% | Draw 38% | Fortaleza EC 39%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 4.35 | Draw 2.63 | Fortaleza EC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Jun 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 23% | Draw 38% | Fortaleza EC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Cruzeiro 0.79 / Fortaleza EC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 0.641 / def 1.079 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.929 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 21 June 2023 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Cruzeiro 0 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 23% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 39% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Fortaleza EC away split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cruzeiro's attack rating (0.64) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
23%
4.41
38%
2.60
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
1.88
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
4.41
23%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 16.6 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.09 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cruzeiro go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cruzeiro
1
Draws
2
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC?
From 6 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 3, Fortaleza EC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Cruzeiro 1-0 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Cruzeiro 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Cruzeiro 0-1 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 0.79 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.64 / defence 1.08 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.93 / defence 0.89, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 23% | Draw 38% | Fortaleza EC 39%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.