Cruzeiro 1-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Fluminense travel to Governador Magalhães Pinto to take on Cruzeiro. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 May 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cruzeiro stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Cruzeiro's home record at Governador Magalhães Pinto: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fluminense — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fluminense are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cruzeiro, 3 for Fluminense and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fluminense in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 45% versus Fluminense 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cruzeiro 45% | Fluminense 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.65 xG and Fluminense 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.077 / defence 1.080 | Fluminense attack 0.973 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.126. Data: 55 Cruzeiro games / 55 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 48% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 27%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Fluminense 3.70. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cruzeiro as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fluminense (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cruzeiro 60% | Fluminense 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Sunday 31 May 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 48% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Cruzeiro 1.65 / Fluminense 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.077 / def 1.080 | Fluminense attack 0.973 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fluminense xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Fluminense kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Fluminense kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 31 May 2026 at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Cruzeiro 1 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Fluminense part of?
Cruzeiro vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 48% chance of winning, Fluminense a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cruzeiro and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Fluminense?
Record (6 meetings): Cruzeiro 2W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 3W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Fluminense in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cruzeiro's attack at 1.08x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
48%
2.07
24%
4.11
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.84
1.18
Fluminense xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
5%
19.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.18 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cruzeiro's recent record stands at 33W 23D 20L from 76 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 28L across 76 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cruzeiro on 1.61 PPG, Fluminense on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cruzeiro have managed 23W 9D 6L from 38 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Cruzeiro are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fluminense's away record stands at 9W 8D 21L across 38 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.09 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Fluminense in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 33W 23D 20L in their last 76 games (1.61 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 31W 17D 28L in their last 76 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Fluminense away?
Cruzeiro's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 2.05 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fluminense in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cruzeiro and Fluminense runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Fluminense?
From 7 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 2, Fluminense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Cruzeiro 1-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 58%, Fluminense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cruzeiro) and 32% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Fluminense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 37% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 32% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Fluminense tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cruzeiro and Fluminense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 18, as Cruzeiro and Fluminense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.65 xG and Fluminense 1.18 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Fluminense attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 48% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 27%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 45%, Fluminense 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.61 PPG, Fluminense 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.