Cruzeiro 1-2 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cruzeiro and Coritiba meet at Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 February 2026 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cruzeiro have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Governador Magalhães Pinto, Cruzeiro have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Cruzeiro 0W, Coritiba 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Coritiba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.92 xG and Coritiba 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.035 / defence 0.906 | Coritiba attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.077. Data: 39 Cruzeiro games / 1 Coritiba games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 63% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 15%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Coritiba 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Cruzeiro (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cruzeiro at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 63% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Cruzeiro 1.92 / Coritiba 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.035 / def 0.906 | Coritiba attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Coritiba xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Coritiba kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Coritiba kicked off at 00:30 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
Cruzeiro 1 - 2 Coritiba.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Coritiba part of?
Cruzeiro vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 63% chance of winning, Coritiba a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cruzeiro and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Coritiba?
Record (2 meetings): Cruzeiro 0W | Draws 1 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Coritiba in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Cruzeiro home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cruzeiro's attack rating (1.03) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (0.85x) against Cruzeiro's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.60
15%
6.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.75
0.83
Coritiba xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
6.50
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
15%
6.82
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
2%
44.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.83 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cruzeiro have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Coritiba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cruzeiro
1
Draws
2
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Coritiba?
From 4 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 1, Coritiba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Coritiba 0-1 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Coritiba?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Coritiba defy the odds to beat Cruzeiro 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Cruzeiro 1-2 at Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.92 xG and Coritiba 0.83 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cruzeiro fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Coritiba outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against Coritiba attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 63% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 15%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Coritiba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.