Criciuma 2-2 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Criciuma at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Criciuma welcome Vasco DA Gama to Estádio Heriberto Hülse. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Criciuma have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Criciuma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Criciuma's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Heriberto Hülse this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasco DA Gama have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vasco DA Gama — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Criciuma have won 1, Vasco DA Gama 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 4–0 with Criciuma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Criciuma trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Criciuma 85% and Vasco DA Gama 45% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Criciuma 65% | Vasco DA Gama 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.40 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 1.007 / defence 1.252 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.726 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.056. Data: 20 Criciuma games / 59 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Criciuma 47% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 25%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Vasco DA Gama 4.00. Criciuma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Criciuma at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasco DA Gama (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Criciuma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Criciuma 90% | Vasco DA Gama 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 47% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Criciuma 1.40 / Vasco DA Gama 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 1.007 / def 1.252 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.726 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Criciuma (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Vasco DA Gama xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama?
Criciuma 2 - 2 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 47% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Criciuma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Criciuma and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (1 meetings): Criciuma 1W | Draws 0 | Vasco DA Gama 0W.
What form are Criciuma and Vasco DA Gama in?
Criciuma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Criciuma's attack rating (1.01) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Criciuma's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Criciuma Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.54
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.36
0.96
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
6%
16.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Criciuma and 0.96 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Criciuma have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 6W 6D 8L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Criciuma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasco DA Gama's form line: 7W 3D 10L from 20 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Criciuma on 1.20 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Criciuma have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (3W 5D 2L).
On the road, Vasco DA Gama have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Criciuma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Criciuma are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.10 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma have seen both teams score in 85% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Criciuma and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Criciuma have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 games (1.20 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 7W 3D 10L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Criciuma at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Criciuma's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Criciuma at home: 1.40 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Criciuma and Vasco DA Gama runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Criciuma
1
Draws
0
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Vasco DA Gama?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 1, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2024, when Criciuma 2-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Criciuma and Vasco DA Gama?
Criciuma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Criciuma at 90%, Vasco DA Gama at 40%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Criciuma) and 40% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Criciuma play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Criciuma's games and 40% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Criciuma vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Criciuma's recent games and 40% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Criciuma and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Criciuma have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Criciuma and Vasco DA Gama share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Criciuma and Vasco DA Gama finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.40 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.96 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 1.01 / defence 1.25 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.73 / defence 1.08, drawn from 20/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 47% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 25%, with Criciuma to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Criciuma 65%, Vasco DA Gama 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Criciuma's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Criciuma 1.20 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.