Criciuma 2-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Criciuma face Botafogo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Botafogo make the trip to Estádio Heriberto Hülse to face Criciuma in Serie A (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Saturday 22 June 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form
Botafogo's record over their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Botafogo's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.13 xG and Botafogo 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 1.020 / defence 1.581 | Botafogo attack 1.211 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.127. Botafogo have an above-average attack rating of 1.211, which lifts their away xG to 2.16. Criciuma's defence rating of 1.581 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Botafogo's projected output up. Data: built from Criciuma's last 8 games and Botafogo's last 48.
Result probabilities: Criciuma 18% | Draw 21% | Botafogo 60%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 5.44 | Draw 4.67 | Botafogo 1.66. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.13 / 2.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 11 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Saturday 22 June 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 18% | Draw 21% | Botafogo 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Criciuma 1.13 / Botafogo 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 1.020 / def 1.581 | Botafogo attack 1.211 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Botafogo xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Criciuma vs Botafogo FAQs
What time does Criciuma vs Botafogo kick off?
Criciuma vs Botafogo kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 22 June 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Botafogo?
Criciuma 2 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Criciuma vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Botafogo part of?
Criciuma vs Botafogo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 11) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 18% chance of winning, Botafogo a 60% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Criciuma and Botafogo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Criciuma vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Criciuma's attack at 1.02x the league average against Botafogo's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.21x) against Criciuma's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 2.16.
These ratings are built from Criciuma's last 8 games and Botafogo's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
18%
5.44
21%
4.67
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Criciuma xG
Total xG
3.29
2.16
Botafogo xG
5.44
18%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
12%
8.66
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
2%
47.13
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Criciuma vs Botafogo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Criciuma and 2.16 for Botafogo, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Botafogo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Pre-Season
Botafogo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Criciuma (Home) vs Botafogo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Criciuma
Pre-Season
Botafogo
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Criciuma and Botafogo, the earliest from June 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 19 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Criciuma
1
Draws
0
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Criciuma vs Botafogo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Botafogo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Criciuma have won 1, Botafogo have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Botafogo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2024: Botafogo 1-1 Criciuma.
Who has won more matches between Criciuma and Botafogo?
Criciuma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Criciuma defy the odds to beat Botafogo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Criciuma beat Botafogo 2-1 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.13 xG and Botafogo 2.16 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Criciuma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Botafogo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 1.02 / defence 1.58 against Botafogo attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 8/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 18% | Draw 21% | Botafogo 60%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Criciuma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.