Coritiba 2-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Fortaleza EC travel to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to take on Coritiba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 July 2022, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's home record at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira: 4W 1D 2L from 7 Serie A appearances (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Coritiba) versus 0.90 (Fortaleza EC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 50% versus Fortaleza EC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 50% | Fortaleza EC 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.49 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.866 / defence 1.040 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.166 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 0.999. Fortaleza EC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Coritiba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Coritiba games / 52 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 43% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 30%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Fortaleza EC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coritiba as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Coritiba 29% | Fortaleza EC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 43% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Coritiba 1.49 / Fortaleza EC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.866 / def 1.040 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.166 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.293 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Fortaleza EC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC?
Coritiba 2 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 43% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Coritiba and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Fortaleza EC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coritiba and Fortaleza EC in?
Coritiba (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Coritiba's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Fortaleza EC's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.60
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.71
1.21
Fortaleza EC xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.21 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coritiba come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 3D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortaleza EC sit at 0.71 PPG from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coritiba on 1.07 PPG, Fortaleza EC on 0.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Coritiba's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fortaleza EC have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coritiba are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 0.86 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Coritiba's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.67 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fortaleza EC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Fortaleza EC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coritiba's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Coritiba
0
Draws
3
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Fortaleza EC?
From 4 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Fortaleza EC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when Fortaleza EC 3-1 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 33%, Fortaleza EC 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Coritiba) and 83% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Coritiba have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Fortaleza EC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Coritiba's games and 83% of Fortaleza EC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coritiba vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Coritiba's recent games and 83% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coritiba edge out Fortaleza EC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Fortaleza EC 2-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.49 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.87 / defence 1.04 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.17 / defence 1.33, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 43% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 30%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 50%, Fortaleza EC 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 1.07 PPG, Fortaleza EC 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coritiba win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.