Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to take on Coritiba. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Fluminense — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Coritiba, 2 for Fluminense and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Fluminense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 0.85 xG and Fluminense 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.591 / defence 1.006 | Fluminense attack 1.133 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.039. Coritiba's attack strength of 0.591 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Coritiba games / 47 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 27% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 44%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Fluminense 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 27% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Coritiba 0.85 / Fluminense 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.591 / def 1.006 | Fluminense attack 1.133 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fluminense xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Fluminense kick off?
Coritiba vs Fluminense kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Coritiba 1 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Coritiba vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Fluminense part of?
Coritiba vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 27% chance of winning, Fluminense a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Coritiba and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Fluminense?
Record (4 meetings): Coritiba 2W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 2W.
What form are Coritiba and Fluminense in?
Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Fluminense away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coritiba's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
27%
3.77
30%
3.34
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.04
1.18
Fluminense xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
19%
5.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.4 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.18 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Fluminense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coritiba and Fluminense runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Fluminense won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coritiba's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Coritiba
1
Draws
2
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Fluminense?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 2, Fluminense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Coritiba and Fluminense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba and Fluminense finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 0.85 xG and Fluminense 1.18 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.59 / defence 1.01 against Fluminense attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 27% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 44%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.