Corinthians 1-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Corinthians at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Corinthians host Sao Paulo at Neo Química Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Neo Química Arena, Corinthians have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sao Paulo — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sao Paulo's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Corinthians at 1.80 PPG versus Sao Paulo's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Corinthians have won 0, Sao Paulo 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Corinthians trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Sao Paulo trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 46% versus Sao Paulo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Corinthians 36% | Sao Paulo 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.19 xG and Sao Paulo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.010 / defence 0.884 | Sao Paulo attack 0.882 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.196. Data: 43 Corinthians games / 43 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 40% | Draw 34% | Sao Paulo 27%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Sao Paulo 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Corinthians as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Corinthians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 30% | Sao Paulo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 40% | Draw 34% | Sao Paulo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Corinthians 1.19 / Sao Paulo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.010 / def 0.884 | Sao Paulo attack 0.882 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sao Paulo xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Corinthians 1 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Corinthians vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Sao Paulo part of?
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 40% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Corinthians and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Sao Paulo?
Record (3 meetings): Corinthians 0W | Draws 2 | Sao Paulo 1W.
What form are Corinthians and Sao Paulo in?
Corinthians (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Sao Paulo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Corinthians's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Sao Paulo's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
40%
2.52
34%
2.97
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.12
0.93
Sao Paulo xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.93 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Corinthians's recent record stands at 33W 23D 20L from 76 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Sao Paulo, meanwhile, have gone 24W 30D 22L across 76 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Corinthians on 1.61 PPG, Sao Paulo on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Corinthians have managed 22W 9D 7L from 38 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sao Paulo's away record stands at 9W 15D 14L across 38 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Corinthians are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.13 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 33W 23D 20L in their last 76 games (1.61 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 24W 30D 22L in their last 76 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Sao Paulo away?
Corinthians's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.97 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Corinthians go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Corinthians's record when hosting Sao Paulo specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Corinthians
4
Draws
4
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Sao Paulo?
From 10 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 2, Sao Paulo have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Corinthians 3-2 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 47%, Sao Paulo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Corinthians and 29% for Sao Paulo.
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sao Paulo in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Sao Paulo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Corinthians's recent matches and 50% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Corinthians's recent games and 29% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians and Sao Paulo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians and Sao Paulo finished level at 1-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.19 xG and Sao Paulo 0.93 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against Sao Paulo attack 0.88 / defence 0.81, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 40% | Draw 34% | Sao Paulo 27%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 36%, Sao Paulo 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.61 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.