Corinthians 1-0 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Corinthians at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Corinthians host Atletico Paranaense at Neo Química Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Corinthians — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Corinthians's home record at Neo Química Arena: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Corinthians are significantly better at Neo Química Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Paranaense stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atletico Paranaense's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Corinthians have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Corinthians, 0 for Atletico Paranaense and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Corinthians winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Corinthians in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Atletico Paranaense in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 53% versus Atletico Paranaense 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 38% | Atletico Paranaense 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.46 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.178 / defence 1.112 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.813 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 0.914. Atletico Paranaense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Corinthians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Corinthians games / 34 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 52% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 21%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico Paranaense 4.76. Corinthians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Corinthians at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Corinthians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 60% | Atletico Paranaense 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 52% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Corinthians 1.46 / Atletico Paranaense 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.178 / def 1.112 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.813 / def 1.259 | league avg home 0.981 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Atletico Paranaense xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense?
Corinthians 1 - 0 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 52% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (1 meetings): Corinthians 1W | Draws 0 | Atletico Paranaense 0W.
What form are Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense in?
Corinthians (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Corinthians's attack rating (1.18) and Atletico Paranaense's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.64
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.28
0.83
Atletico Paranaense xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
5%
20.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.83 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Corinthians come into this having played 34 games, going 14W 11D 9L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Atletico Paranaense sit at 1.24 PPG from 34 outings (12W 6D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Corinthians on 1.56 PPG, Atletico Paranaense on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Corinthians's home form reads 9W 4D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico Paranaense have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (4W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Corinthians are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.15 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 14W 11D 9L in their last 34 games (1.56 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 12W 6D 16L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Corinthians's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.94 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when Corinthians won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Corinthians's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Corinthians
3
Draws
1
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense?
From 10 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 6, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Corinthians 0-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atletico Paranaense see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 69%, Atletico Paranaense 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Corinthians) and 44% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Atletico Paranaense in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Corinthians's recent matches and 38% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Corinthians's recent games and 44% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out Atletico Paranaense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Atletico Paranaense 1-0 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.46 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.83 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Paranaense landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.18 / defence 1.11 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.81 / defence 1.26, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 52% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 21%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 38%, Atletico Paranaense 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.56 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.