Chapecoense-sc 0-1 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Santos at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chapecoense-sc vs Santos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Condá plays host to Chapecoense-sc versus Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 1 August 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Current Form
Chapecoense-sc's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Condá, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 1D 5L this season (6 games, 0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Santos have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos away from home this season: 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Santos are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Chapecoense-sc half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Santos half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chapecoense-sc 62% versus Santos 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chapecoense-sc 54% | Santos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.13 xG and Santos 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.729 / defence 1.558 | Santos attack 0.867 / defence 1.727. League average goals — home 0.894 / away 1.055. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Santos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.727 — this is suppressing Chapecoense-sc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Chapecoense-sc games / 13 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 30% | Draw 26% | Santos 44%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Santos 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santos are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chapecoense-sc 33% | Santos 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 30% | Draw 26% | Santos 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.13 / Santos 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.729 / def 1.558 | Santos attack 0.867 / def 1.727 | league avg home 0.894 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Santos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Santos xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Santos kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Santos kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
Chapecoense-sc 0 - 1 Santos.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Santos part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Santos is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 30% chance of winning, Santos a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Santos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Santos in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Santos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chapecoense-sc's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Santos's defensive record (1.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Santos's attack (0.87x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.56x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
30%
3.36
26%
3.80
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.55
1.43
Santos xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
7%
13.96
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.43 for Santos, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chapecoense-sc come into this having played 13 games, going 0W 4D 9L for 0.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Chapecoense-sc's home form reads 0W 1D 5L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.33 points per game from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Attack vs Defence
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.15 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Santos in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 4D 9L in their last 13 games (0.31 PPG), while Santos have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Santos away?
Santos's away record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.17 PPG; Santos away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Chapecoense-sc or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chapecoense-sc have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Santos in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Santos?
From 4 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 1, Santos have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Santos 2-2 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Santos?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chapecoense-sc see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Santos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chapecoense-sc 33%, Santos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chapecoense-sc) and 67% (Santos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 67% of games; Santos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chapecoense-sc's recent matches and 50% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Chapecoense-sc's matches and 67% of Santos's.
Prediction vindicated as Santos edge out Chapecoense-sc 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Chapecoense-sc 0-1 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.13 xG and Santos 1.43 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chapecoense-sc fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.73 / defence 1.56 against Santos attack 0.87 / defence 1.73, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 30% | Draw 26% | Santos 44%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 54%, Santos 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santos's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Santos arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Santos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.