Chapecoense-sc 4-2 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Condá plays host to Chapecoense-sc versus Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 January 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Santos have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Santos away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Chapecoense-sc 0W, Santos 2W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Santos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.31 xG and Santos 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Santos attack 1.094 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.031. Data: 0 Chapecoense-sc games / 38 Santos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 37% | Draw 26% | Santos 36%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Santos 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chapecoense-sc are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jan 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 37% | Draw 26% | Santos 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.31 / Santos 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Santos attack 1.094 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Santos xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Santos kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Santos kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
Chapecoense-sc 4 - 2 Santos.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Santos part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Santos is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 37% chance of winning, Santos a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Santos?
Record (2 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 0 | Santos 2W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Santos in?
Santos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Santos away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chapecoense-sc's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Santos's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Santos's attack (1.09x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.80
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.61
1.30
Santos xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.30 for Santos, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Santos
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Santos?
From 4 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 1, Santos have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Santos 2-2 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Santos?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chapecoense-sc cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Santos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chapecoense-sc beat Santos 4-2 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.31 xG and Santos 1.30 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Santos attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 37% | Draw 26% | Santos 36%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.