Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gremio make the trip to Arena Condá to face Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gremio's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chapecoense-sc, 2 for Gremio and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 2.00 xG and Gremio 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 1.254 / defence 1.350 | Gremio attack 0.986 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.153. Chapecoense-sc carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 4 Chapecoense-sc games / 43 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 49% | Draw 22% | Gremio 30%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Gremio 3.33. Chapecoense-sc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chapecoense-sc as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Monday 16 Mar 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 49% | Draw 22% | Gremio 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Chapecoense-sc 2.00 / Gremio 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 1.254 / def 1.350 | Gremio attack 0.986 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Gremio xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 16 March 2026 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 49% chance of winning, Gremio a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Gremio?
Record (2 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 0 | Gremio 2W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Gremio in?
Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Gremio away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chapecoense-sc's attack at 1.25x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.99x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 4/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
49%
2.06
22%
4.63
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
3.53
1.53
Gremio xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
4%
24.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.53 for Gremio, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Gremio
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Gremio?
From 4 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Gremio have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Gremio 3-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chapecoense-sc and Gremio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 6, as Chapecoense-sc and Gremio drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 2.00 xG and Gremio 1.53 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 1.25 / defence 1.35 against Gremio attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 4/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 49% | Draw 22% | Gremio 30%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.