Chapecoense-sc 3-3 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 3 as Chapecoense-sc welcome Coritiba to Arena Condá. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.94 xG and Coritiba 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 1.175 / defence 1.231 | Coritiba attack 1.012 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.111. Data: 2 Chapecoense-sc games / 2 Coritiba games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 50% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 27%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Coritiba 3.70. Chapecoense-sc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chapecoense-sc at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Feb 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 50% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.94 / Coritiba 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 1.175 / def 1.231 | Coritiba attack 1.012 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Coritiba xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
Chapecoense-sc 3 - 3 Coritiba.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 50% chance of winning, Coritiba a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chapecoense-sc's attack at 1.18x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
50%
1.98
22%
4.49
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
3.32
1.38
Coritiba xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
4%
25.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.38 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba?
From 2 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Coritiba 2-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba finished level at 3-3 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.94 xG and Coritiba 1.38 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coritiba outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 1.18 / defence 1.23 against Coritiba attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 50% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 27%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.