Ceara 2-1 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Ceara take on Santos.
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Match Analysis
Ceara host Santos at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ceara stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Santos — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ceara, 1 for Santos and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ceara in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 41% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Santos in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 54% versus Santos 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 35% | Santos 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 0.79 xG and Santos 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.769 / defence 0.985 | Santos attack 0.814 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 0.920. Ceara's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Santos's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Ceara games / 63 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 33% | Draw 36% | Santos 30%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Santos 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Santos's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.52 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 28% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ceara 60% | Santos 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 33% | Draw 36% | Santos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG Ceara 0.79 / Santos 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.769 / def 0.985 | Santos attack 0.814 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.291 / away 0.920 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Santos xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Santos kick off?
Ceara vs Santos kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Santos?
Ceara 2 - 1 Santos.
Where is Ceara vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Santos part of?
Ceara vs Santos is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 33% chance of winning, Santos a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Ceara and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Santos?
Record (3 meetings): Ceara 0W | Draws 2 | Santos 1W.
What form are Ceara and Santos in?
Ceara (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Santos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ceara's attack rating (0.77) and Santos's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
36%
2.75
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Ceara xG
Total xG
1.52
0.74
Santos xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.52
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
46%
2.20
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.8 | 16.1 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.4%.
How many goals are Ceara and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Ceara and 0.74 for Santos, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ceara come into this having played 63 games, going 16W 30D 17L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.33 PPG from 63 outings (20W 24D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ceara on 1.24 PPG, Santos on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ceara's home form reads 12W 13D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.94 points per game from 31 outings (5W 14D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ceara are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.00 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Santos in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Santos in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 16W 30D 17L in their last 63 games (1.24 PPG), while Santos have gone 20W 24D 19L in their last 63 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Santos away?
Ceara's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.58 PPG; Santos away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Ceara or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Santos in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2025, when Ceara won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ceara's record when hosting Santos specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ceara
3
Draws
1
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Santos?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 2, Santos have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2025, when Ceara 3-0 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Santos?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Santos see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 55%, Santos 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Ceara) and 36% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Santos in 32%; Ceara have failed to score in 26% of games; Santos in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Ceara's recent matches and 42% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Ceara's recent games and 36% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Santos tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Santos in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ceara edge out Santos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Santos 2-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 0.79 xG and Santos 0.74 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ceara beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.77 / defence 0.98 against Santos attack 0.81 / defence 0.79, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 33% | Draw 36% | Santos 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ceara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 35%, Santos 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Santos's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.24 PPG, Santos 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ceara win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Santos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.