Ceara 2-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ceara at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo plays host to Ceara versus Corinthians in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Thursday 25 November 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ceara's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ceara at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
Corinthians have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Corinthians's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Ceara, 1.60 for Corinthians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ceara 0W, Corinthians 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Corinthians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ceara half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 53% versus Corinthians 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 38% | Corinthians 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.07 xG and Corinthians 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.961 / defence 1.024 | Corinthians attack 0.751 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 0.968 / away 0.915. Data: 34 Ceara games / 34 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 44% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 24%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Corinthians 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Corinthians's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ceara at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ceara if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 40% | Corinthians 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Nov 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 44% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Ceara 1.07 / Corinthians 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.961 / def 1.024 | Corinthians attack 0.751 / def 1.151 | league avg home 0.968 / away 0.915 • Poisson stance: Ceara (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Corinthians xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Corinthians kick off?
Ceara vs Corinthians kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 25 November 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Corinthians?
Ceara 2 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Ceara vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Corinthians part of?
Ceara vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 44% chance of winning, Corinthians a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Ceara and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Corinthians?
Record (1 meetings): Ceara 0W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 1W.
What form are Ceara and Corinthians in?
Ceara (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Corinthians (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ceara's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Corinthians's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (0.75x) against Ceara's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
44%
2.29
33%
3.07
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Ceara xG
Total xG
1.77
0.70
Corinthians xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Ceara and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Ceara and 0.70 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Ceara have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 10W 16D 8L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Corinthians's form line: 14W 11D 9L from 34 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Ceara against 1.56 for Corinthians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ceara have posted 1.94 PPG from 17 outings (9W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Corinthians have gone 5W 7D 5L from 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ceara are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.09 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 10W 16D 8L in their last 34 games (1.35 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 14W 11D 9L in their last 34 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Corinthians away?
Ceara's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.94 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Ceara or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Corinthians in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ceara have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ceara
0
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Corinthians?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 3, Corinthians have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Corinthians 0-1 Ceara.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ceara see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 53%, Corinthians 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 41% for Ceara and 24% for Corinthians.
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Corinthians in 35%; Corinthians in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ceara's recent matches and 35% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Ceara's recent games and 24% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ceara edge out Corinthians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Corinthians 2-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.07 xG and Corinthians 0.70 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ceara beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Corinthians attack 0.75 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 44% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 24%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 38%, Corinthians 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Corinthians's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.35 PPG, Corinthians 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ceara win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.