Ceara 1-1 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Ceara welcome Atletico Goianiense to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 June 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Ceara have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ceara at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
Atletico Goianiense — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico Goianiense have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ceara 1.70 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ceara, 0 for Atletico Goianiense and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ceara in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Atletico Goianiense in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 53% versus Atletico Goianiense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 40% | Atletico Goianiense 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.12 xG and Atletico Goianiense 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.749 / defence 1.057 | Atletico Goianiense attack 1.040 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 0.990. Ceara's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Ceara games / 51 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 35% | Draw 31% | Atletico Goianiense 34%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Atletico Goianiense 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ceara as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 40% | Atletico Goianiense 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 35% | Draw 31% | Atletico Goianiense 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Ceara 1.12 / Atletico Goianiense 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.749 / def 1.057 | Atletico Goianiense attack 1.040 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.319 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Ceara (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Atletico Goianiense xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense?
Ceara 1 - 1 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 35% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ceara and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (2 meetings): Ceara 0W | Draws 2 | Atletico Goianiense 0W.
What form are Ceara and Atletico Goianiense in?
Ceara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ceara's attack at 0.75x the league average against Atletico Goianiense's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Goianiense's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
35%
2.83
31%
3.26
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.21
1.09
Atletico Goianiense xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ceara and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Ceara and 1.09 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Ceara have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 11W 17D 10L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Atletico Goianiense's form line: 13W 14D 11L from 38 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ceara on 1.32 PPG, Atletico Goianiense on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ceara have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (10W 7D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atletico Goianiense have gone 7W 4D 8L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ceara are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.87 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Atletico Goianiense in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Current Season
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 11W 17D 10L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Ceara's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.95 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Ceara or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ceara's record when hosting Atletico Goianiense specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ceara
3
Draws
1
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Atletico Goianiense?
From 4 meetings on record, Ceara have won 0, Atletico Goianiense have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2022, when Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Atletico Goianiense?
Atletico Goianiense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ceara see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Atletico Goianiense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 53%, Atletico Goianiense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ceara) and 42% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense in 42%; Atletico Goianiense in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ceara's recent matches and 37% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ceara's recent games and 42% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Ceara and Atletico Goianiense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 14, as Ceara and Atletico Goianiense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.12 xG and Atletico Goianiense 1.09 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Atletico Goianiense attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 35% | Draw 31% | Atletico Goianiense 34%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 40%, Atletico Goianiense 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.32 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.