Ceara 0-0 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ceara at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 15 as Ceara welcome Atletico Goianiense to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Ceara have gone 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 5W 1D 1L from 7 home games — 2.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atletico Goianiense — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico Goianiense have posted 3W 1D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.43 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ceara are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Ceara in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Atletico Goianiense in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 57% versus Atletico Goianiense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 43% | Atletico Goianiense 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.50 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 1.322 / defence 1.093 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.849 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 0.875 / away 1.057. Ceara carry an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Atletico Goianiense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Ceara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Ceara games / 14 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 49% | Draw 26% | Atletico Goianiense 25%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Atletico Goianiense 4.00. Ceara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ceara as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Ceara 71% | Atletico Goianiense 57% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 49% | Draw 26% | Atletico Goianiense 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Ceara 1.50 / Atletico Goianiense 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 1.322 / def 1.093 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.849 / def 1.296 | league avg home 0.875 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Ceara (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Atletico Goianiense xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense?
Ceara 0 - 0 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 49% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ceara and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Atletico Goianiense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ceara and Atletico Goianiense in?
Ceara (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ceara's attack at 1.32x the league average against Atletico Goianiense's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Goianiense's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.84
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.48
0.98
Atletico Goianiense xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
6%
18.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ceara and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ceara and 0.98 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Ceara have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 5W 7D 2L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Goianiense's form line: 5W 4D 5L from 14 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ceara on 1.57 PPG, Atletico Goianiense on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ceara have posted 2.29 PPG from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atletico Goianiense have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ceara are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.86 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Atletico Goianiense in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 5W 7D 2L in their last 14 games (1.57 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Ceara's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 2.29 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Ceara or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ceara's record when hosting Atletico Goianiense specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ceara
3
Draws
1
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Atletico Goianiense?
From 4 meetings on record, Ceara have won 0, Atletico Goianiense have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2022, when Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Atletico Goianiense?
Atletico Goianiense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 71%, Atletico Goianiense 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Ceara) and 43% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Atletico Goianiense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ceara's games and 57% of Atletico Goianiense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Ceara's recent games and 43% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ceara's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara and Atletico Goianiense finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.50 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.98 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ceara fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Atletico Goianiense landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 1.32 / defence 1.09 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.85 / defence 1.30, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 49% | Draw 26% | Atletico Goianiense 25%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 43%, Atletico Goianiense 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.57 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.