Botafogo 1-3 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Palmeiras at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 29 as Botafogo welcome Palmeiras to Estádio Nilton Santos. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 4 October 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Botafogo at Estádio Nilton Santos this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Palmeiras's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 0, Palmeiras 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2022, ended 0–4 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Botafogo trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 39% versus Palmeiras 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 29% | Palmeiras 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 0.56 xG and Palmeiras 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.649 / defence 0.934 | Palmeiras attack 1.251 / defence 0.661. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 0.883. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.649 is below the league average — the 0.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.661 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Botafogo games / 66 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 20% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 46%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 5.00 | Draw 2.94 | Palmeiras 2.17. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Botafogo's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 10% | Palmeiras 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Oct 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 20% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 28% | xG Botafogo 0.56 / Palmeiras 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.649 / def 0.934 | Palmeiras attack 1.251 / def 0.661 | league avg home 1.308 / away 0.883 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.56
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Palmeiras xG
28%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Botafogo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Botafogo 1 - 3 Palmeiras.
Where is Botafogo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Palmeiras part of?
Botafogo vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 20% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 46% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Botafogo and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Palmeiras?
Record (1 meetings): Botafogo 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Palmeiras in?
Botafogo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Botafogo's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.56. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (19.5%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
20%
5.07
34%
2.95
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
21.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
20.4%
Draw
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.56
Botafogo xG
Total xG
1.59
1.03
Palmeiras xG
5.07
20%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.62
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
57%
1.75
Win to Nil
7%
14.23
26%
3.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.4 | 21.0 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.9%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.03 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Botafogo come into this having played 28 games, going 10W 7D 11L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 2.14 PPG from 28 outings (17W 9D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Botafogo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Botafogo's home form reads 4W 4D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 2.14 points per game from 14 outings (8W 6D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Botafogo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.61 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 10W 7D 11L in their last 28 games (1.32 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 17W 9D 2L in their last 28 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.14 PPG; Palmeiras away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Botafogo and Palmeiras runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jun 2022, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Botafogo
1
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 3, Palmeiras have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 36%, Palmeiras 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Botafogo and 36% for Palmeiras.
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Palmeiras in 57%; Botafogo have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Botafogo's recent matches and 43% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Botafogo's recent games and 36% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Botafogo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Botafogo 1-3 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 0.56 xG and Palmeiras 1.03 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.65 / defence 0.93 against Palmeiras attack 1.25 / defence 0.66, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 20% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 46%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 29%, Palmeiras 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Botafogo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.