Botafogo 1-1 Ceara – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ceara at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Ceara travel to Estádio Nilton Santos to take on Botafogo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022, 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Botafogo — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo at Estádio Nilton Santos this season: 3W 1D 5L from 9 home games — 1.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Ceara have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ceara have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Botafogo at 1.20 PPG versus Ceara's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Botafogo, 0 for Ceara and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 3–1 with Botafogo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Botafogo in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ceara in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 40% versus Ceara 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 30% | Ceara 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 0.81 xG and Ceara 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.735 / defence 1.081 | Ceara attack 0.955 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 0.935. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Botafogo games / 58 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 29% | Draw 33% | Ceara 38%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Ceara 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Botafogo's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ceara are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 44% | Ceara 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 29% | Draw 33% | Ceara 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Botafogo 0.81 / Ceara 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.735 / def 1.081 | Ceara attack 0.955 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.326 / away 0.935 • Poisson stance: Ceara (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ceara xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Ceara kick off?
Botafogo vs Ceara kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Ceara?
Botafogo 1 - 1 Ceara.
Where is Botafogo vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Ceara part of?
Botafogo vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 29% chance of winning, Ceara a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Botafogo and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Ceara?
Record (1 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 0 | Ceara 0W.
What form are Botafogo and Ceara in?
Botafogo (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Ceara (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Botafogo's attack rating (0.73) and Ceara's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
29%
3.44
33%
3.02
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Botafogo xG
Total xG
1.77
0.96
Ceara xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 16.4 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.96 for Ceara, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Botafogo have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 7W 3D 10L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ceara's form line: 5W 9D 6L from 20 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.20 PPG, Ceara on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Botafogo have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
On the road, Ceara have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Botafogo are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 1.05 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Ceara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Ceara in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 7W 3D 10L in their last 20 games (1.20 PPG), while Ceara have gone 5W 9D 6L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Ceara away?
Botafogo's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.11 PPG; Ceara away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Ceara in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Botafogo and Ceara runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Botafogo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Botafogo's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Botafogo
1
Draws
0
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Ceara?
From 4 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 3, Ceara have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Ceara 0-2 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Ceara?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Ceara see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 44%, Ceara 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Botafogo and 22% for Ceara.
On the defensive side: Ceara in 44%; Botafogo have failed to score in 33% of games; Ceara in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Botafogo's recent matches and 33% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Botafogo's recent games and 22% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Botafogo and Ceara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 21, as Botafogo and Ceara drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 0.81 xG and Ceara 0.96 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.73 / defence 1.08 against Ceara attack 0.95 / defence 0.83, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 29% | Draw 33% | Ceara 38%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 30%, Ceara 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Ceara's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.20 PPG, Ceara 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.