Botafogo 3-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nilton Santos plays host to Botafogo versus Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Botafogo's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Nilton Santos, Botafogo have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — Botafogo are significantly better at Estádio Nilton Santos than their overall form suggests.
Bahia (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Botafogo's favour (2.40 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Botafogo have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Bahia in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Botafogo lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Botafogo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 35% versus Bahia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 40% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.85 xG and Bahia 0.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.383 / defence 0.728 | Bahia attack 0.598 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.948. Botafogo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.383 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Botafogo's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Botafogo games / 20 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 72% | Draw 22% | Bahia 7%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.39 | Draw 4.55 | Bahia 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (72%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Bahia's lower xG of 0.41 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 30% | Bahia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 72% | Draw 22% | Bahia 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 29% | xG Botafogo 1.85 / Bahia 0.41 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.383 / def 0.728 | Bahia attack 0.598 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.948 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.41
Bahia xG
29%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Bahia kick off?
Botafogo vs Bahia kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Bahia?
Botafogo 3 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Botafogo vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Bahia part of?
Botafogo vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 72% chance of winning, Bahia a 7% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Botafogo and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Bahia?
Record (1 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 0 | Bahia 0W.
What form are Botafogo and Bahia in?
Botafogo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Bahia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.60x) against Botafogo's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.41.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (17.8%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
72%
1.39
22%
4.63
7%
15.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
17.8%
Home win
3 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.26
0.41
Bahia xG
1.39
72%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
15.02
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.41
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
66%
1.51
16%
6.36
Win to Nil
47%
2.11
1%
95.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 17.8 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.41 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Botafogo's recent record stands at 15W 3D 2L from 20 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 9L across 20 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Botafogo by 1.35 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 10W 0D 0L from 10 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.40 PPG overall — Botafogo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bahia's away record stands at 1W 3D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Botafogo are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.55 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.10 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Bahia in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 15W 3D 2L in their last 20 games (2.40 PPG), while Bahia have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Bahia away?
Botafogo's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 3.00 PPG; Bahia away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Bahia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Bahia?
From 7 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 3, Bahia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Bahia 2-1 Botafogo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 30% (Botafogo) and 30% (Bahia) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Botafogo and 30% for Bahia.
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; Bahia in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Botafogo's recent matches and 30% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Botafogo's recent games and 30% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Bahia tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bahia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Bahia 3-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.85 xG and Bahia 0.41 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.38 / defence 0.73 against Bahia attack 0.60 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 72% | Draw 22% | Bahia 7%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 40%, Bahia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.