Bahia 0-3 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sao Paulo make the trip to Arena Fonte Nova to face Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Wednesday 6 November 2024 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bahia have posted 5W 2D 3L at Arena Fonte Nova — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sao Paulo (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sao Paulo have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Bahia, 1.60 for Sao Paulo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Bahia 1W, Sao Paulo 3W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2024, ended 1–3 with Sao Paulo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bahia — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Sao Paulo — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 52% versus Sao Paulo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 49% | Sao Paulo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.30 xG and Sao Paulo 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.948 / defence 0.796 | Sao Paulo attack 0.874 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.019. Bahia's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Bahia games / 69 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 50% | Draw 29% | Sao Paulo 20%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Sao Paulo 5.00. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 30% | Sao Paulo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Nov 2024, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 50% | Draw 29% | Sao Paulo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Bahia 1.30 / Sao Paulo 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.948 / def 0.796 | Sao Paulo attack 0.874 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Bahia (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Sao Paulo xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Bahia vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 00:30 on Wednesday 6 November 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Bahia 0 - 3 Sao Paulo.
Where is Bahia vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Sao Paulo part of?
Bahia vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 50% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bahia and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Sao Paulo?
Record (5 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 1 | Sao Paulo 3W.
What form are Bahia and Sao Paulo in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Sao Paulo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bahia's attack at 0.95x the league average against Sao Paulo's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (0.87x) against Bahia's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
50%
1.98
29%
3.40
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.01
0.71
Sao Paulo xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Bahia and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bahia and 0.71 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bahia come into this having played 69 games, going 25W 15D 29L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Sao Paulo sit at 1.51 PPG from 69 outings (29W 17D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Bahia against 1.51 for Sao Paulo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bahia's home form reads 18W 7D 9L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sao Paulo have taken 0.79 points per game from 34 outings (5W 12D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sao Paulo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.19 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 25W 15D 29L in their last 69 games (1.30 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 29W 17D 23L in their last 69 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Sao Paulo away?
Bahia's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.79 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Bahia or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sao Paulo won 0-3 on 6 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Bahia
2
Draws
5
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Sao Paulo?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 2, Sao Paulo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 47%, Sao Paulo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bahia) and 44% (Sao Paulo).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sao Paulo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Sao Paulo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bahia's recent matches and 53% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bahia's recent games and 44% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sao Paulo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Bahia 0-3 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.30 xG and Sao Paulo 0.71 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bahia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sao Paulo outscored their 0.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.95 / defence 0.80 against Sao Paulo attack 0.87 / defence 1.00, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 50% | Draw 29% | Sao Paulo 20%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Sao Paulo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 49%, Sao Paulo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.30 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.