Bahia 3-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Santos make the trip to Estádio Governador Roberto Santos to face Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 May 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.39 xG and Santos 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Santos attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 2.046. Data: 0 Bahia games / 0 Santos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bahia 24% | Draw 27% | Santos 49%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Santos 2.04. Santos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santos are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Governador Roberto Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 24% | Draw 27% | Santos 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Bahia 1.39 / Santos 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Santos attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.418 / away 2.046 • Poisson stance: Santos (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Santos xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Santos kick off?
Bahia vs Santos kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Santos?
Bahia 3 - 0 Santos.
Where is Bahia vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What competition is Bahia vs Santos part of?
Bahia vs Santos is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 24% chance of winning, Santos a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Bahia and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Santos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and Santos in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (0.85) and Santos's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santos's attack (0.85x) against Bahia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
24%
4.21
27%
3.66
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Bahia xG
Total xG
3.39
2.00
Santos xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
14%
7.39
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
3%
31.12
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Bahia and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Bahia and 2.00 for Santos, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Pre-Season
Santos
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 3-0 on 30 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Bahia
3
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Santos?
From 7 meetings on record, Bahia have won 2, Santos have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bahia 2-2 Santos.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Bahia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Santos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Santos 3-0 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.39 xG and Santos 2.00 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Santos landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Santos attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 24% | Draw 27% | Santos 49%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Bahia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.