Bahia 1-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bahia vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Bragantino make the trip to Arena Fonte Nova to face Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bahia have posted 4W 1D 5L at Arena Fonte Nova — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 6W 2D 1L from 9 away games — 2.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.22 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, RB Bragantino are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bahia 0W, RB Bragantino 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 32% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 42% versus RB Bragantino 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 47% | RB Bragantino 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.08 xG and RB Bragantino 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.165 / defence 1.493 | RB Bragantino attack 1.084 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 0.883 / away 1.085. Data: 20 Bahia games / 19 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 22% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 52%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | RB Bragantino 1.92. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bahia 40% | RB Bragantino 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 22% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Bahia 1.08 / RB Bragantino 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.165 / def 1.493 | RB Bragantino attack 1.084 / def 1.047 | league avg home 0.883 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.76
RB Bragantino xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Bahia vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Bahia 1 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Bahia vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs RB Bragantino part of?
Bahia vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 22% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bahia and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and RB Bragantino?
Record (1 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 0W.
What form are Bahia and RB Bragantino in?
Bahia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bahia's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.08x) against Bahia's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
22%
4.60
26%
3.79
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.83
1.76
RB Bragantino xG
4.60
22%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
17%
5.79
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
4%
26.63
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Bahia and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Bahia and 1.76 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 4D 10L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino's form line: 8W 8D 3L from 19 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Bragantino are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bahia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 6W 2D 1L from 9 away games — 2.22 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.68 PPG overall record — RB Bragantino travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.58 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 8W 8D 3L in their last 19 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or RB Bragantino away?
RB Bragantino's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.11 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Bahia or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bahia have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Bahia
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and RB Bragantino?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 5, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Bahia 2-0 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and RB Bragantino?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 44%, RB Bragantino 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Bahia) and 56% (RB Bragantino). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino in 44%; Bahia have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bahia's recent matches and 44% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Bahia's matches and 56% of RB Bragantino's.
Do Bahia and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia and RB Bragantino finished level at 1-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.08 xG and RB Bragantino 1.76 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.17 / defence 1.49 against RB Bragantino attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 22% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 52%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 47%, RB Bragantino 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.