Bahia 0-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Corinthians at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Corinthians travel to Estádio Governador Roberto Santos to take on Bahia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 June 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 0.87 xG and Corinthians 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.015 / defence 1.048 | Corinthians attack 0.855 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 0.836 / away 1.044. Data: 4 Bahia games / 4 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 32% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 35%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Corinthians 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Bahia's lower xG of 0.87 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Corinthians as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Corinthians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Governador Roberto Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 32% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Bahia 0.87 / Corinthians 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.015 / def 1.048 | Corinthians attack 0.855 / def 1.022 | league avg home 0.836 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Corinthians xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Corinthians kick off?
Bahia vs Corinthians kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Corinthians?
Bahia 0 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is Bahia vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What competition is Bahia vs Corinthians part of?
Bahia vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 32% chance of winning, Corinthians a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Bahia and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Corinthians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and Corinthians in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.01) and Corinthians's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
32%
3.15
33%
3.05
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Bahia xG
Total xG
1.80
0.94
Corinthians xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 15.4 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Bahia and 0.94 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Pre-Season
Corinthians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Corinthians runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Bahia won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bahia's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bahia
4
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Corinthians?
From 10 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Corinthians have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Corinthians.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Bahia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos, Regular Season - 5, as Bahia and Corinthians drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 0.87 xG and Corinthians 0.94 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bahia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Corinthians landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Corinthians attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 32% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 35%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.