Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena da Baixada plays host to Atletico Paranaense versus Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Thursday 12 February 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico Paranaense have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Atletico Paranaense haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Paranaense have posted 3W 2D 5L at Arena da Baixada — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Santos's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Santos have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Santos are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atletico Paranaense lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 3–0 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atletico Paranaense — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Santos — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 50% versus Santos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 37% | Santos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.61 xG and Santos 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Santos attack 1.078 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.172. Data: 1 Atletico Paranaense games / 40 Santos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 42% | Draw 24% | Santos 35%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Santos 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Paranaense are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Santos (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Paranaense 50% | Santos 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Feb 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 42% | Draw 24% | Santos 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.61 / Santos 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Santos attack 1.078 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Santos xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Santos kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Santos kicked off at 22:00 on Thursday 12 February 2026 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Santos?
Atletico Paranaense 2 - 1 Santos.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Santos part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Santos is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 42% chance of winning, Santos a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Santos?
Record (6 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 1W | Draws 2 | Santos 3W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Santos in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Santos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (0.86) and Santos's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santos's attack (1.08x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
The sample (1/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
42%
2.41
24%
4.18
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
3.07
1.45
Santos xG
2.41
42%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
7%
14.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.45 for Santos, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atletico Paranaense come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 9D 18L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. Atletico Paranaense haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (12W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Atletico Paranaense against 1.24 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atletico Paranaense's home form reads 7W 4D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Santos in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Santos have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Santos away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.32 PPG; Santos away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Atletico Paranaense go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 3-0 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
3
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Santos?
From 8 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, Santos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Santos 0-2 Atletico Paranaense.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 53%, Santos 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Atletico Paranaense) and 58% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Santos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 53% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 58% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Santos tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Santos in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Paranaense edge out Santos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Santos 2-1 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.61 xG and Santos 1.45 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Santos attack 1.08 / defence 1.16, drawn from 1/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 42% | Draw 24% | Santos 35%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 37%, Santos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.11 PPG, Santos 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Paranaense win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.