Atletico Paranaense 1-3 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Palmeiras travel to Arena da Baixada to take on Atletico Paranaense. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 26 October 2022, 01:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Arena da Baixada, Atletico Paranaense have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena da Baixada. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Atletico Paranaense are significantly better at Arena da Baixada than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Palmeiras's away record: 5W 5D 0L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palmeiras are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 1 for Palmeiras and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 2–0 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Atletico Paranaense trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 45% versus Palmeiras 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 44% | Palmeiras 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 0.97 xG and Palmeiras 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.021 / defence 0.881 | Palmeiras attack 1.272 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 0.955. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 Atletico Paranaense games / 71 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 32% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 37%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Palmeiras 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 50% | Palmeiras 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Oct 2022, 01:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 32% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Atletico Paranaense 0.97 / Palmeiras 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.021 / def 0.881 | Palmeiras attack 1.272 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.293 / away 0.955 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Palmeiras xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras kicked off at 01:45 on Wednesday 26 October 2022 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 3 Palmeiras.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 32% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
Record (3 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 1W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 1.02x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
32%
3.12
30%
3.28
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.04
1.07
Palmeiras xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.07 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 27W 17D 27L from 71 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 40W 17D 14L across 71 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Paranaense heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 17W 11D 7L from 35 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 18W 10D 7L across 35 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.61 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 27W 17D 27L in their last 71 games (1.38 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 40W 17D 14L in their last 71 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.77 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Palmeiras 1-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 51%, Palmeiras 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Atletico Paranaense) and 46% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Palmeiras in 46%; Atletico Paranaense have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 46% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 46% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Atletico Paranaense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Atletico Paranaense 1-3 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 0.97 xG and Palmeiras 1.07 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Palmeiras attack 1.27 / defence 0.73, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 32% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 37%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 44%, Palmeiras 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.