Atletico Paranaense 0-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Palmeiras travel to Ligga Arena to take on Atletico Paranaense. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024, 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ligga Arena, Atletico Paranaense have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palmeiras are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 3 for Palmeiras and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atletico Paranaense trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 55% versus Palmeiras 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 40% | Palmeiras 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.07 xG and Palmeiras 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.906 / defence 1.247 | Palmeiras attack 1.044 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.032. Data: 60 Atletico Paranaense games / 62 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 30% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 43%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Palmeiras 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 60% | Palmeiras 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Ligga Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 30% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.07 / Palmeiras 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.906 / def 1.247 | Palmeiras attack 1.044 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Palmeiras xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Ligga Arena.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Ligga Arena.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 30% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
Record (7 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 2W | Draws 2 | Palmeiras 3W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 0.91x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
30%
3.37
27%
3.65
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.41
1.34
Palmeiras xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.34 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 22W 19D 19L from 60 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 32W 14D 14L across 60 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Paranaense heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 14W 10D 5L from 29 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 10W 11D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palmeiras's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.60 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 32W 14D 14L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Palmeiras away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.79 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Palmeiras 1-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 62%, Palmeiras 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Atletico Paranaense) and 41% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Palmeiras in 38%; Palmeiras in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 41% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 41% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Atletico Paranaense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Atletico Paranaense 0-2 at Ligga Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.07 xG and Palmeiras 1.34 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Palmeiras attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 30% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 43%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 40%, Palmeiras 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Palmeiras's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.