Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 17 as Atletico Paranaense welcome Internacional to Arena da Baixada. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 July 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Paranaense have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense's home record at Arena da Baixada: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Internacional stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Internacional have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atletico Paranaense 2.10 PPG, Internacional 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Atletico Paranaense, 1 for Internacional and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Internacional winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Paranaense in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Internacional in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 44% versus Internacional 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 46% | Internacional 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.21 xG and Internacional 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.145 / defence 1.083 | Internacional attack 1.087 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 0.951. Data: 54 Atletico Paranaense games / 54 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 37% | Draw 29% | Internacional 33%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Internacional 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Paranaense are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Paranaense 40% | Internacional 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 37% | Draw 29% | Internacional 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.21 / Internacional 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.145 / def 1.083 | Internacional attack 1.087 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.298 / away 0.951 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Internacional xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional?
Atletico Paranaense 0 - 0 Internacional.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 37% chance of winning, Internacional a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Internacional?
Record (2 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 1W | Draws 0 | Internacional 1W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Internacional in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Internacional (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atletico Paranaense's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
37%
2.67
29%
3.41
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.33
1.12
Internacional xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.12 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Paranaense come into this having played 54 games, going 21W 11D 22L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Internacional sit at 1.41 PPG from 54 outings (19W 19D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atletico Paranaense on 1.37 PPG, Internacional on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atletico Paranaense's home form reads 12W 7D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Internacional have taken 1.19 points per game from 26 outings (7W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.24 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Internacional in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Internacional have gone 19W 19D 16L in their last 54 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Internacional away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.65 PPG; Internacional away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Paranaense and Internacional runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Paranaense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
2
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Internacional?
From 10 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 6, Internacional have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Internacional?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 54%, Internacional 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atletico Paranaense) and 23% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Internacional in 31%; Atletico Paranaense have failed to score in 31% of games; Internacional in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 42% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 23% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Internacional tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Internacional in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atletico Paranaense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense and Internacional finished level at 0-0 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.21 xG and Internacional 1.12 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Internacional landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.15 / defence 1.08 against Internacional attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 37% | Draw 29% | Internacional 33%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 46%, Internacional 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Internacional's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.37 PPG, Internacional 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.