Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense and Gremio meet at Arena da Baixada in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Current Form
Atletico Paranaense's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Atletico Paranaense haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Atletico Paranaense at Arena da Baixada this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Gremio have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Gremio have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 3 for Gremio and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Gremio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 50% versus Gremio 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Paranaense 37% | Gremio 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.77 xG and Gremio 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.174 / defence 0.929 | Gremio attack 0.800 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.056. Data: 13 Atletico Paranaense games / 51 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 61% | Draw 23% | Gremio 16%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Gremio 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Paranaense (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Paranaense at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 50% | Gremio 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 61% | Draw 23% | Gremio 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.77 / Gremio 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.174 / def 0.929 | Gremio attack 0.800 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Gremio xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Atletico Paranaense 0 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 61% chance of winning, Gremio a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Gremio?
Record (6 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 3W | Draws 0 | Gremio 3W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Gremio in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 1.17x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.80x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.2%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.36
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.56
0.79
Gremio xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
3%
36.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.79 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 11W 9D 18L from 38 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. Atletico Paranaense haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Gremio, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 15L across 38 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Atletico Paranaense against 1.29 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 7W 4D 8L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gremio's away record stands at 4W 5D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.24 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Gremio in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Gremio have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Gremio away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.32 PPG; Gremio away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Atletico Paranaense
1
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Gremio?
From 7 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, Gremio have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 53%, Gremio 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Atletico Paranaense) and 47% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Gremio in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Gremio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Atletico Paranaense's games and 58% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 47% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Gremio tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Gremio in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atletico Paranaense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 14, as Atletico Paranaense and Gremio drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.77 xG and Gremio 0.79 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.17 / defence 0.93 against Gremio attack 0.80 / defence 1.03, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 61% | Draw 23% | Gremio 16%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 37%, Gremio 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.11 PPG, Gremio 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.