Atletico Goianiense 2-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Flamengo travel to Estádio Antônio Accioly to take on Atletico Goianiense. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Goianiense stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Atletico Goianiense's home record at Estádio Antônio Accioly: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Flamengo away from home this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Flamengo — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Flamengo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atletico Goianiense trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 28% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Flamengo trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 40% versus Flamengo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Goianiense 30% | Flamengo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 0.94 xG and Flamengo 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.795 / defence 1.096 | Flamengo attack 1.565 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 0.911. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.565 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Atletico Goianiense games / 37 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 23% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 52%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Flamengo 1.92. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Atletico Goianiense 50% | Flamengo 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 23% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Atletico Goianiense 0.94 / Flamengo 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.795 / def 1.096 | Flamengo attack 1.565 / def 1.189 | league avg home 0.988 / away 0.911 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Flamengo xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:30 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo?
Atletico Goianiense 2 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 23% chance of winning, Flamengo a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atletico Goianiense's attack at 0.80x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Atletico Goianiense's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
23%
4.43
25%
3.93
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.50
1.56
Flamengo xG
4.43
23%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
5%
21.12
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.56 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Atletico Goianiense have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 12W 14D 11L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 21W 8D 8L from 37 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atletico Goianiense.
Venue Form
On home soil, Atletico Goianiense have posted 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (5W 10D 3L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 8W 7D 3L from 18 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.86 scored and 0.92 conceded. Flamengo's attacking output running into Atletico Goianiense's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Flamengo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 12W 14D 11L in their last 37 games (1.35 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 8L in their last 37 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.39 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Flamengo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2022, when Flamengo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico Goianiense's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Atletico Goianiense
1
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 1, Flamengo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when Flamengo 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico Goianiense tend to start slowly — only 28% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Goianiense 44%, Flamengo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Atletico Goianiense) and 67% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Atletico Goianiense's games and 67% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 67% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 28% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Goianiense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Flamengo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense beat Flamengo 2-0 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 0.94 xG and Flamengo 1.56 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atletico Goianiense beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Flamengo landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Flamengo attack 1.56 / defence 1.19, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 23% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 52%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Atletico Goianiense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 30%, Flamengo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Flamengo's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Atletico Goianiense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.