Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Goianiense at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Antônio Accioly plays host to Atletico Goianiense versus Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 24 April 2022 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Atletico Goianiense (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atletico Goianiense's home record at Estádio Antônio Accioly: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 1.40 xG and Botafogo 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.917 / defence 0.963 | Botafogo attack 1.170 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 0.899. Data: 40 Atletico Goianiense games / 2 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 46% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 27%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Botafogo 3.70. Atletico Goianiense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Goianiense as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Goianiense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 46% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Atletico Goianiense 1.40 / Botafogo 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.917 / def 0.963 | Botafogo attack 1.170 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.418 / away 0.899 • Poisson stance: Atletico Goianiense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Botafogo xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 46% chance of winning, Botafogo a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atletico Goianiense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Atletico Goianiense home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atletico Goianiense's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.17x) against Atletico Goianiense's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 40/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Goianiense Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.71
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.41
1.01
Botafogo xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.01 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Pre-Season
Botafogo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Botafogo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 1-4 on 4 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Goianiense have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Atletico Goianiense
2
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo?
From 4 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Botafogo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 4 August 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 1-4 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 3, as Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 1.40 xG and Botafogo 1.01 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Botafogo attack 1.17 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 46% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 27%, with Atletico Goianiense to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.