Zulte Waregem 2-2 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kortrijk make the trip to Elindus Arena to face Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zulte Waregem have collected 1.00 PPG across 8 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem at Elindus Arena this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 home games — 0.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elindus Arena this season.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 3L from 8 games (1.62 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Kortrijk are the stronger side — 0.62 PPG clear of the hosts (1.62 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 75% versus Kortrijk 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 75% | Kortrijk 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG and Kortrijk 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.937 / defence 1.639 | Kortrijk attack 0.718 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.502. Data: 8 Zulte Waregem games / 8 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 25% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 52%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Kortrijk 1.92. Kortrijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 75% | Kortrijk 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 25% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.15 / Kortrijk 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.937 / def 1.639 | Kortrijk attack 0.718 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Kortrijk xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 2 Kortrijk.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 25% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.94) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.72x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.64x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
25%
4.05
23%
4.27
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.92
1.77
Kortrijk xG
4.05
25%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
4%
23.75
16%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.77 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 3L across 8 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kortrijk by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zulte Waregem heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kortrijk in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Kortrijk away?
Kortrijk's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.25 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kortrijk won 5-0 on 19 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Kortrijk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Zulte Waregem 3-3 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kortrijk see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 75%, Kortrijk 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Zulte Waregem and 25% for Kortrijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 25% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 25% of Kortrijk's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk finished level at 2-2 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG and Kortrijk 1.77 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.94 / defence 1.64 against Kortrijk attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 25% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 52%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 75%, Kortrijk 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.