Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Zulte Waregem to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 4W 1D 2L from 7 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.86 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Mariën this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 2W 2D 3L from 7 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.14 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 road games this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.14 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Union St. Gilloise have the edge — a 0.72 PPG advantage (1.86 vs 1.14) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 43% versus Zulte Waregem 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 57% | Zulte Waregem 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.38 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.161 / defence 0.845 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.961 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.554. Data: 7 Union St. Gilloise games / 7 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 34%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Union St. Gilloise 0% | Zulte Waregem 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.38 / Zulte Waregem 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.161 / def 0.845 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.961 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.554 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Zulte Waregem xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 40% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union St. Gilloise's attack rating (1.16) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.83
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.64
1.26
Zulte Waregem xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
9%
11.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.26 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 1D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zulte Waregem sit at 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Zulte Waregem have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.14 PPG overall record — Zulte Waregem travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.57 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 71%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.00 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Zulte Waregem have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Union St. Gilloise 0% BTTS, Zulte Waregem 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Union St. Gilloise and 33% for Zulte Waregem.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 33%; Union St. Gilloise have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Zulte Waregem?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 67% of Zulte Waregem's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 33% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Zulte Waregem 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Zulte Waregem 2-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.38 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.26 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.16 / defence 0.84 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 40% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 34%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 57%, Zulte Waregem 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.