Union St. Gilloise 1-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Genk to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Mariën this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Genk — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Genk have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union St. Gilloise 1.60 PPG, Genk 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Genk in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 47% versus Genk 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 57% | Genk 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.62 xG and Genk 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.106 / defence 0.779 | Genk attack 1.448 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.421. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.448 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Union St. Gilloise games / 41 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 39% | Draw 23% | Genk 38%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Genk 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Genk 50%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 39% | Draw 23% | Genk 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.62 / Genk 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.106 / def 0.779 | Genk attack 1.448 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Genk xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 2 Genk.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 39% chance of winning, Genk a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Genk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
39%
2.58
23%
4.29
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.23
1.60
Genk xG
2.58
39%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.82
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.60 for Genk, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 47 games, going 30W 7D 10L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.66 PPG from 47 outings (23W 9D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Genk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 14W 3D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.02 scored and 1.34 conceded. Genk's attacking output running into Union St. Gilloise's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Genk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 30W 7D 10L in their last 47 games (2.06 PPG), while Genk have gone 23W 9D 15L in their last 47 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Genk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.96 PPG; Genk away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Genk in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Genk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Genk specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, Genk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 44%, Genk 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Union St. Gilloise) and 61% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 61% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 61% of Genk's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Genk tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Genk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genk defy the odds to beat Union St. Gilloise 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Union St. Gilloise 1-2 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.62 xG and Genk 1.60 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.11 / defence 0.78 against Genk attack 1.45 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 39% | Draw 23% | Genk 38%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 57%, Genk 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.66. Form was overturned, with Genk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.