Union St. Gilloise 0-1 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Club Brugge KV at 41%, yet in-form Union St. Gilloise provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV meet at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Club Brugge KV have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Club Brugge KV have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Union St. Gilloise. A 2.00 PPG lead over Club Brugge KV (3.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Union St. Gilloise register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Club Brugge KV in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.04 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.973 / defence 1.150 | Club Brugge KV attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.928 / away 1.427. Data: 1 Union St. Gilloise games / 1 Club Brugge KV games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 24% | Draw 35% | Club Brugge KV 41%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Club Brugge KV 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.2 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 44% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Club Brugge KV at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union St. Gilloise (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 4.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 24% | Draw 35% | Club Brugge KV 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.04 / Club Brugge KV 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.973 / def 1.150 | Club Brugge KV attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.928 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Club Brugge KV xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 1 Club Brugge KV.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 24% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 41% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 0.97x the league average against Club Brugge KV's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Club Brugge KV's attack (0.85x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
24%
4.14
35%
2.90
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.43
1.40
Club Brugge KV xG
4.14
24%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
6%
16.69
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.40 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Club Brugge KV — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Club Brugge KV's attacking output running into Union St. Gilloise's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Club Brugge KV in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Club Brugge KV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge KV won 5-0 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Club Brugge KV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union St. Gilloise
4
Draws
3
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, Club Brugge KV have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Club Brugge KV 5-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Club Brugge KV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 100% of Club Brugge KV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 100% of Club Brugge KV's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Club Brugge KV in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Club Brugge KV edge out Union St. Gilloise 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat Union St. Gilloise 0-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.04 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.40 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Club Brugge KV attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 24% | Draw 35% | Club Brugge KV 41%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 100%, Club Brugge KV 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Club Brugge KV winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union St. Gilloise managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Club Brugge KV managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.