Union St. Gilloise 4-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Round - 6 sees Antwerp travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Mariën than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union St. Gilloise at 1.40 PPG versus Antwerp's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Union St. Gilloise have won 1, Antwerp 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Antwerp trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 69% versus Antwerp 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 67% | Antwerp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.41 xG and Antwerp 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.112 / defence 1.006 | Antwerp attack 1.102 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. Data: 64 Union St. Gilloise games / 64 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 35%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Antwerp 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 80% | Antwerp 20%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.41 / Antwerp 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.112 / def 1.006 | Antwerp attack 1.102 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Antwerp xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise 4 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 40% chance of winning, Antwerp a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Record (3 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 1W | Draws 2 | Antwerp 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.11x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.89
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.71
1.30
Antwerp xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.30 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 47W 15D 13L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Antwerp's form line: 40W 18D 17L from 75 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.08 PPG, Antwerp on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.16 PPG from 37 outings (25W 5D 7L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 15W 10D 12L from 37 away games — 1.49 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.67 scored and 0.92 conceded. Union St. Gilloise's scoring rate against Antwerp's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Antwerp in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 47W 15D 13L in their last 75 games (2.08 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 40W 18D 17L in their last 75 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Antwerp away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.16 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Antwerp in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Antwerp have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 68%, Antwerp 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Union St. Gilloise) and 43% (Antwerp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 40%; Antwerp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 35% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 43% of Antwerp's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Antwerp 4-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.41 xG and Antwerp 1.30 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Antwerp attack 1.10 / defence 0.81, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 40% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 35%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 67%, Antwerp 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.08 PPG, Antwerp 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.