Union St. Gilloise 0-2 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Round - 1 sees Antwerp travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 May 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Mariën than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Antwerp — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 2.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Antwerp trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 57% versus Antwerp 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 62% | Antwerp 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.09 xG and Antwerp 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.096 / defence 0.874 | Antwerp attack 0.951 / defence 0.598. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.378. Antwerp's defence strength of 0.598 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 68 Union St. Gilloise games / 68 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 33% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 36%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Antwerp 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Antwerp 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 33% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.09 / Antwerp 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.096 / def 0.874 | Antwerp attack 0.951 / def 0.598 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Antwerp xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 2 Antwerp.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 33% chance of winning, Antwerp a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Antwerp (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.10x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
33%
3.03
31%
3.21
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.23
1.15
Antwerp xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.15 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 49W 12D 13L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Antwerp's form line: 42W 13D 19L from 74 games, 1.88 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.15 PPG, Antwerp on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.08 PPG from 37 outings (24W 5D 8L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 20W 6D 11L from 37 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.58 scored and 1.00 conceded. Union St. Gilloise's scoring rate against Antwerp's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Antwerp in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 49W 12D 13L in their last 74 games (2.15 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 42W 13D 19L in their last 74 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Antwerp away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.08 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Antwerp in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Antwerp have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 51%, Antwerp 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Union St. Gilloise) and 40% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Antwerp in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 43% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 40% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union St. Gilloise.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Union St. Gilloise 0-2 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.09 xG and Antwerp 1.15 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Antwerp outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.10 / defence 0.87 against Antwerp attack 0.95 / defence 0.60, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 33% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 36%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 62%, Antwerp 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.15 PPG, Antwerp 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.