Union St. Gilloise 3-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Championship Round - 1 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Anderlecht to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Mariën: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Anderlecht's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Union St. Gilloise) versus 2.20 (Anderlecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 47% versus Anderlecht 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 62% | Anderlecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.26 xG and Anderlecht 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.091 / defence 0.893 | Anderlecht attack 1.060 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.307. Data: 34 Union St. Gilloise games / 34 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 37% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 36%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Anderlecht 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Anderlecht 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 37% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.26 / Anderlecht 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.091 / def 0.893 | Anderlecht attack 1.060 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Anderlecht xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise 3 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 37% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
37%
2.69
27%
3.70
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.50
1.24
Anderlecht xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.24 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.26 PPG on a 24W 5D 5L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Anderlecht's form line: 18W 10D 6L from 34 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.26 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 1.94 PPG from 17 outings (10W 3D 4L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 8W 5D 4L from 17 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 2.12 scored and 1.06 conceded. Anderlecht's attacking output running into Union St. Gilloise's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 24W 5D 5L in their last 34 games (2.26 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 18W 10D 6L in their last 34 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Anderlecht away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.94 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 41%, Anderlecht 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Union St. Gilloise) and 53% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Anderlecht in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 47% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 53% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 3-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.26 xG and Anderlecht 1.24 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.09 / defence 0.89 against Anderlecht attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 37% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 36%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 62%, Anderlecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Anderlecht's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.26 PPG, Anderlecht 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.