Standard Liege 0-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Zulte Waregem travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 December 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Standard Liege have gone 2W 3D 4L this season (9 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Standard Liege 1.00 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Standard Liege have won 1, Zulte Waregem 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Standard Liege winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liege in-play tendencies (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Standard Liege 63% and Zulte Waregem 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Standard Liege 58% | Zulte Waregem 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.30 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.732 / defence 1.177 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.764 / defence 1.453. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.531. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.453 — this is suppressing Standard Liege's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Standard Liege games / 20 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 35% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 39%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zulte Waregem at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 56% | Zulte Waregem 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 35% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Standard Liege 1.30 / Zulte Waregem 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.732 / def 1.177 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.764 / def 1.453 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.531 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Zulte Waregem xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Standard Liege 0 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 35% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem?
Record (1 meetings): Standard Liege 1W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.73) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
35%
2.84
26%
3.86
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.67
1.38
Zulte Waregem xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.26
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.38 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 6W 5D 8L from 19 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 10L across 19 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.21 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.53 scored and 2.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Standard Liege have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Zulte Waregem in 74%.
Last 19 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 6W 5D 8L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.00 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2022, when Standard Liege won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
2
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 50%, Zulte Waregem 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Standard Liege and 75% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Standard Liege's games and 75% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Standard Liege's matches and 75% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zulte Waregem edge out Standard Liege 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Standard Liege 0-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.30 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.38 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liege fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.73 / defence 1.18 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.76 / defence 1.45, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 35% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 39%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 58%, Zulte Waregem 79%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.21 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.