Standard Liege 2-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Maurice Dufrasne plays host to Standard Liege versus Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Standard Liege have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege's home record at Stade Maurice Dufrasne: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Maurice Dufrasne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this season.
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Standard Liege 0W, Union St. Gilloise 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Standard Liege — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 45% versus Union St. Gilloise 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 47% | Union St. Gilloise 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.51 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.974 / defence 0.843 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.441 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.420. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.441 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Standard Liege games / 50 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 34% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 43%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Standard Liege 30% | Union St. Gilloise 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 34% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Standard Liege 1.51 / Union St. Gilloise 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.974 / def 0.843 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.441 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Union St. Gilloise xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Standard Liege 2 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 34% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (2 meetings): Standard Liege 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 2W.
What form are Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.97) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.44x) against Standard Liege's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
34%
2.96
23%
4.32
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
3.23
1.73
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
6%
16.61
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.73 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 17W 10D 22L from 49 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 32W 8D 9L across 49 games — 2.12 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Standard Liege heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 7W 6D 11L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 18W 3D 3L across 24 trips, a 2.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Standard Liege are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.06 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 17W 10D 22L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 32W 8D 9L in their last 49 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.12 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liege have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Standard Liege
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Standard Liege 1-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 46%, Union St. Gilloise 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Standard Liege) and 67% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Standard Liege's matches and 67% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Standard Liege 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Standard Liege 2-3 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.51 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.73 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.97 / defence 0.84 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.44 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 34% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 43%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 47%, Union St. Gilloise 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.