St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as St. Truiden welcome Zulte Waregem to Daio Wasabi Stayen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 November 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden at Daio Wasabi Stayen this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Zulte Waregem's 2.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of St. Truiden's 1.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of St. Truiden: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Zulte Waregem, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with St. Truiden winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both St. Truiden and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 58% versus Zulte Waregem 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 58% | Zulte Waregem 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.43 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / defence 0.991 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.904 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Data: 33 St. Truiden games / 34 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 41% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 33%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
St. Truiden dominate the H2H record, yet Zulte Waregem are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zulte Waregem (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 70% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 41% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG St. Truiden 1.43 / Zulte Waregem 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / def 0.991 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.904 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Zulte Waregem xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem is scheduled to kick off at 18:15 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem part of?
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 41% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
Record (6 meetings): St. Truiden 5W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.96x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.87
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.68
1.25
Zulte Waregem xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.25 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 21W 6D 13L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 15W 11D 14L from 40 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.72 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 5W 7D 7L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.52 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 21W 6D 13L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Zulte Waregem away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.89 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when St. Truiden won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
St. Truiden
0
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 5, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when St. Truiden 3-2 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 58%, Zulte Waregem 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (St. Truiden) and 58% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of St. Truiden's games and 68% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of St. Truiden's matches and 58% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.