St. Truiden 1-2 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and Standard Liege meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 6W 2D 2L at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Standard Liege's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Standard Liege have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Standard Liege's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. St. Truiden's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Standard Liege's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
St. Truiden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Standard Liege goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 51% versus Standard Liege 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | Standard Liege 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.78 xG and Standard Liege 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.996 / defence 1.050 | Standard Liege attack 0.944 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.382. Data: 41 St. Truiden games / 41 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 47% | Draw 23% | Standard Liege 30%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Standard Liege 3.33. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. This conflicts with form data: St. Truiden 50% | Standard Liege 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 47% | Draw 23% | Standard Liege 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG St. Truiden 1.78 / Standard Liege 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.996 / def 1.050 | Standard Liege attack 0.944 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Standard Liege xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Standard Liege kick off?
St. Truiden vs Standard Liege kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Standard Liege?
St. Truiden 1 - 2 Standard Liege.
Where is St. Truiden vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Standard Liege part of?
St. Truiden vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 47% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both St. Truiden and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Standard Liege?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Standard Liege in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
St. Truiden's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Standard Liege's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Standard Liege's attack (0.94x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
47%
2.12
23%
4.32
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.15
1.37
Standard Liege xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
5%
19.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.37 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden come into this having played 41 games, going 17W 10D 14L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Standard Liege sit at 1.12 PPG from 41 outings (12W 10D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Standard Liege, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.12 for Standard Liege. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
St. Truiden's home form reads 8W 4D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Standard Liege have taken 1.25 points per game from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.02 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Standard Liege
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 17W 10D 14L in their last 41 games (1.49 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Standard Liege away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.40 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.25 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
St. Truiden have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Standard Liege — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, Standard Liege have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Standard Liege 1-2 St. Truiden.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 70%, Standard Liege 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (St. Truiden) and 50% (Standard Liege). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Standard Liege?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of St. Truiden's games and 50% of Standard Liege's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of St. Truiden's matches and 50% of Standard Liege's.
Do St. Truiden and Standard Liege tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Standard Liege defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat St. Truiden 1-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.78 xG and Standard Liege 1.37 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Standard Liege attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 47% | Draw 23% | Standard Liege 30%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Standard Liege win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, Standard Liege 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Standard Liege's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.49 PPG, Standard Liege 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.