St. Truiden 0-0 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as St. Truiden welcome OH Leuven to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (St. Truiden) versus 1.40 (OH Leuven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. St. Truiden register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, OH Leuven in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 49% versus OH Leuven 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 47% | OH Leuven 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.59 xG and OH Leuven 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.842 / defence 1.009 | OH Leuven attack 1.277 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.438. OH Leuven have an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 St. Truiden games / 47 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 34% | Draw 22% | OH Leuven 44%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.94 | Draw 4.55 | OH Leuven 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OH Leuven at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OH Leuven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 60% | OH Leuven 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 34% | Draw 22% | OH Leuven 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG St. Truiden 1.59 / OH Leuven 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.842 / def 1.009 | OH Leuven attack 1.277 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.85
OH Leuven xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kick off?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
St. Truiden 0 - 0 OH Leuven.
Where is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven part of?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 34% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both St. Truiden and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. OH Leuven (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.84x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
34%
2.99
22%
4.49
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.45
1.85
OH Leuven xG
2.99
34%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
16%
6.38
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
5%
19.04
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.85 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 19W 10D 18L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven's form line: 16W 13D 18L from 47 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.43 PPG, OH Leuven on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 6W 8D 9L from 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.49 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 19W 10D 18L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 16W 13D 18L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or OH Leuven away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.35 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.13 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or OH Leuven been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, OH Leuven in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and OH Leuven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — St. Truiden at 70%, OH Leuven at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for St. Truiden and 70% for OH Leuven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of St. Truiden's games and 70% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of St. Truiden's matches and 70% of OH Leuven's.
Do St. Truiden and OH Leuven tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at St. Truiden's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden and OH Leuven finished level at 0-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.59 xG and OH Leuven 1.85 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 1.6 short of their projected output. OH Leuven landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against OH Leuven attack 1.28 / defence 1.19, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 34% | Draw 22% | OH Leuven 44%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 47%, OH Leuven 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OH Leuven's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.43 PPG, OH Leuven 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.