St. Truiden 2-0 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as St. Truiden welcome OH Leuven to Stadion Stayen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Stadion Stayen: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. OH Leuven's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of St. Truiden's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 59% and OH Leuven 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 52% | OH Leuven 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.40 xG and OH Leuven 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / defence 1.111 | OH Leuven attack 0.972 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.397. OH Leuven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 St. Truiden games / 27 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 35% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 40%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | OH Leuven 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OH Leuven at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OH Leuven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 80% | OH Leuven 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 35% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG St. Truiden 1.40 / OH Leuven 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / def 1.111 | OH Leuven attack 0.972 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.51
OH Leuven xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kick off?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stadion Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
St. Truiden 2 - 0 OH Leuven.
Where is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven part of?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 35% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both St. Truiden and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. OH Leuven (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.96x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
35%
2.83
25%
4.05
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.91
1.51
OH Leuven xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.51 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 10W 4D 13L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven's form line: 10W 9D 8L from 27 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.26 PPG, OH Leuven on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 3W 6D 4L from 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.63 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 74%.
Last 27 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 10W 4D 13L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or OH Leuven away?
OH Leuven's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.08 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and OH Leuven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — St. Truiden at 77%, OH Leuven at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for St. Truiden and 69% for OH Leuven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of St. Truiden's games and 77% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of St. Truiden's matches and 69% of OH Leuven's.
Do St. Truiden and OH Leuven tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over OH Leuven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat OH Leuven 2-0 at Stadion Stayen, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.40 xG and OH Leuven 1.51 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. OH Leuven landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against OH Leuven attack 0.97 / defence 1.29, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 35% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 40%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 52%, OH Leuven 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
OH Leuven's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.26 PPG, OH Leuven 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.