St. Truiden 0-3 Gent – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gent at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and Gent meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 January 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this season.
Gent have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gent have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.80 for Gent. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Gent — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 49% versus Gent 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | Gent 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.05 xG and Gent 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.817 / defence 0.827 | Gent attack 1.049 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.357. Data: 55 St. Truiden games / 55 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 32% | Draw 29% | Gent 39%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Gent 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gent if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 50% | Gent 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 32% | Draw 29% | Gent 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG St. Truiden 1.05 / Gent 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.817 / def 0.827 | Gent attack 1.049 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Gent (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Gent xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Gent kick off?
St. Truiden vs Gent kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Gent?
St. Truiden 0 - 3 Gent.
Where is St. Truiden vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Gent part of?
St. Truiden vs Gent is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 32% chance of winning, Gent a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both St. Truiden and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Gent (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Gent's attack (1.05x) against St. Truiden's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
32%
3.10
29%
3.42
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.23
1.18
Gent xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.18 for Gent, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 23W 13D 19L from 55 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 30W 12D 13L across 55 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.85 for Gent. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 10W 6D 11L from 27 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 14W 7D 6L across 27 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.56 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Gent in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 23W 13D 19L in their last 55 games (1.49 PPG), while Gent have gone 30W 12D 13L in their last 55 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Gent away?
Gent's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.33 PPG; Gent away: 1.81 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gent in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, Gent have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when St. Truiden 1-1 Gent.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 63%, Gent 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (St. Truiden) and 44% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Gent in 44%; Gent in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 41% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of St. Truiden's recent games and 44% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Gent tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Gent in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gent run riot with a 0-3 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat St. Truiden 0-3 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.05 xG and Gent 1.18 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Gent outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.82 / defence 0.83 against Gent attack 1.05 / defence 0.82, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 32% | Draw 29% | Gent 39%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, Gent 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gent's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.49 PPG, Gent 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gent (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.