St. Truiden vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St. Truiden face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Charleroi at Daio Wasabi Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 4W 2D 4L at Daio Wasabi Stayen — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Charleroi — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Charleroi, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for St. Truiden.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Charleroi winning.
It is worth noting that Charleroi have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 54% versus Charleroi 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 56% | Charleroi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 0.96 xG and Charleroi 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.904 / defence 1.044 | Charleroi attack 1.044 / defence 0.671. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Charleroi's defence strength of 0.671 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 St. Truiden games / 38 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 26% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 48%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Charleroi 2.08. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 50% | Charleroi 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 26% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG St. Truiden 0.96 / Charleroi 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.904 / def 1.044 | Charleroi attack 1.044 / def 0.671 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Charleroi xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Charleroi kick off?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Charleroi part of?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 26% chance of winning, Charleroi a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both St. Truiden and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Record (10 meetings): St. Truiden 2W | Draws 3 | Charleroi 5W.
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.90x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
26%
3.92
27%
3.72
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.38
1.42
Charleroi xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
18%
5.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.42 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 24W 7D 17L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 21W 9D 18L from 48 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.65 PPG, Charleroi on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.88 PPG from 24 outings (14W 3D 7L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 12W 3D 9L from 24 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.38 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 24W 7D 17L in their last 48 games (1.65 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Charleroi away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.88 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.62 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Charleroi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Charleroi have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 50%, Charleroi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (St. Truiden) and 38% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Charleroi in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 42% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of St. Truiden's recent games and 38% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Charleroi tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.