St. Truiden 3-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Stayen plays host to St. Truiden versus Beerschot VA in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 20 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
St. Truiden have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Stayen this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beerschot VA's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Beerschot VA have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in St. Truiden's favour (1.80 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Beerschot VA in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: St. Truiden 1W, Beerschot VA 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with St. Truiden winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 55% versus Beerschot VA 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 45% | Beerschot VA 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.68 xG and Beerschot VA 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.913 / defence 1.035 | Beerschot VA attack 0.647 / defence 1.618. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.302. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.618 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 St. Truiden games / 31 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 56% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 19%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Beerschot VA 5.26. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: St. Truiden 70% | Beerschot VA 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 56% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG St. Truiden 1.68 / Beerschot VA 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.913 / def 1.035 | Beerschot VA attack 0.647 / def 1.618 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Beerschot VA xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA kick off?
St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadion Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
St. Truiden 3 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA part of?
St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 56% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both St. Truiden and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Beerschot VA?
Record (1 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 0W.
What form are St. Truiden and Beerschot VA in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.91x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.62x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.65x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.14
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.55
0.87
Beerschot VA xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
4%
27.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.87 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 12W 6D 13L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Beerschot VA's form line: 4W 4D 23L from 31 games, 0.52 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, St. Truiden are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Beerschot VA.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 3D 12L from 15 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 0.97 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Current Season
Beerschot VA
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 12W 6D 13L in their last 31 games (1.35 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 4W 4D 23L in their last 31 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Beerschot VA away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.20 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
St. Truiden go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 0-3 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
St. Truiden
0
Draws
0
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Beerschot VA?
From 6 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 6, Beerschot VA have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when St. Truiden 2-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Beerschot VA?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for St. Truiden, 67% for Beerschot VA — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for St. Truiden and 60% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of St. Truiden's games and 67% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of St. Truiden's matches and 60% of Beerschot VA's.
Do St. Truiden and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Beerschot VA 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Beerschot VA 3-2 at Stadion Stayen, Regular Season - 32, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.68 xG and Beerschot VA 0.87 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beerschot VA outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Beerschot VA attack 0.65 / defence 1.62, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 56% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 19%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 45%, Beerschot VA 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.52. That form edge translated into the three points. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.