St. Truiden 2-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium plays host to St. Truiden versus Beerschot VA in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
St. Truiden have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beerschot VA's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Beerschot VA have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for St. Truiden, 0.70 for Beerschot VA — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, St. Truiden are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with St. Truiden winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both St. Truiden and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 67% versus Beerschot VA 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 53% | Beerschot VA 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 2.18 xG and Beerschot VA 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.139 / defence 1.224 | Beerschot VA attack 0.739 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.132. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 St. Truiden games / 28 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 61% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 14%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Beerschot VA 7.14. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 80% | Beerschot VA 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 61% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG St. Truiden 2.18 / Beerschot VA 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.139 / def 1.224 | Beerschot VA attack 0.739 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Beerschot VA xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA kick off?
St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 7 March 2025 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
St. Truiden 2 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA part of?
St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 61% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both St. Truiden and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Beerschot VA?
Record (3 meetings): St. Truiden 3W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 0W.
What form are St. Truiden and Beerschot VA in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 1.14x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.74x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.13
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.21
1.02
Beerschot VA xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
2%
61.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.02 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 16W 20D 22L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Beerschot VA's form line: 20W 14D 24L from 58 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.28 for Beerschot VA. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.69 PPG from 29 outings (12W 13D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 10W 3D 16L from 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.22 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Current Season
Beerschot VA
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 16W 20D 22L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 20W 14D 24L in their last 58 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Beerschot VA away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.69 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
St. Truiden go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 0-3 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
St. Truiden
0
Draws
0
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Beerschot VA?
From 6 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 6, Beerschot VA have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when St. Truiden 2-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Beerschot VA?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 72%, Beerschot VA 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (St. Truiden) and 62% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of St. Truiden's games and 52% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of St. Truiden's recent games and 62% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Beerschot VA 2-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 2.18 xG and Beerschot VA 1.02 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Beerschot VA landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.14 / defence 1.22 against Beerschot VA attack 0.74 / defence 1.32, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 61% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 14%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 53%, Beerschot VA 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.17 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.